承前*1
先ずは、
Justin McCurry “Mike Pence warns North Korea: do not test Trump's resolve” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/mike-pence-north-korea-missile-nuclear-strategic-patience-is-over
米国のマイク・ペンス副大統領が38度線近くのDMZをサプライズ訪問。北朝鮮の兵隊２名がペンスの写真を撮っていたのが確認されたという。
さて、『朝日新聞』の記事；
柔道の世界ジュニア選手権、平壌開催を変更へ 緊迫化で2017年4月17日19時55分
平壌で１０月に開催を予定している柔道の世界ジュニア選手権について、国際柔道連盟（ＩＪＦ）が開催地の変更を検討していることが柔道関係者への取材でわかった。北朝鮮情勢の緊迫化を受け、選手団を安全に派遣できるのかどうか、加盟国からも懸念の声が出ていた。ＩＪＦのビゼール会長は３月、自身のツイッターで「平和な状況になるまで延期になるだろう」との見解を示していた。
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK4K636KK4KUTQP01J.html
中国国際航空、北京―平壌便を一時運航停止へ北京＝西村大輔
2017年4月15日21時48分
中国中央テレビは１４日、航空大手の中国国際航空が北京と平壌を結ぶ定期便の運航を１７日から一時停止すると報じた。理由の詳細は分からないが、北朝鮮が核・ミサイル開発を進め、トランプ米政権が原子力空母を派遣するなど緊張が高まる朝鮮半島情勢が影響している可能性がある。同航空は２００８年に北京―平壌便を初めて開設。週３便程度運航していた。１４日が最終便となり、北京と平壌を結ぶのは北朝鮮の高麗航空便だけとなる。航空便の開設は外交的な意味合いもあり、中国の北朝鮮に対する政治的なシグナルとの見方もある。
ただ、同便は乗客が集まらずにしばしば欠航することがあったという。中国が北朝鮮に経済制裁するなど中朝関係が険悪化する中で、乗客の減少が運航停止の背景にあるとの見方もある。（北京＝西村大輔）
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASK4G73V5K4GUHBI036.html
“The Guardian view on North Korea: apocalypse not right now” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/16/the-guardian-view-on-north-korea-apocalypse-not-right-now
曰く、
A war, then, would be the worst possible outcome to this crisis. It would cause unimaginable devastation and suffering and disrupt the world economy, which is now so tightly interlinked around the globe. That does not mean there is a best outcome but there may be a least worst. North Korea will not give up its nuclear deterrent. Every time the Americans bomb another country, the case for its weapon is strengthened in the eyes of Pyongyang. But it just might be persuaded to agree to some kind of deal which would freeze the programme in exchange for supplies of all that the country desperately needs. This is not ideal. It would need China’s cooperation. Both sides would try to cheat and neither could trust the other for a moment. Nonetheless, to quote Winston Churchill, whom Mr Trump believes he emulates, jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
Tom Phillips and Justin McCurry “Trump's North Korea sabre-rattling has a flaw: Kim Jong-un has nothing to lose” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/16/north-korea-missile-test-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-has-nothing-to-lose
濠太剌利国立大学のLeonid Petrov氏*3の意見；
In fact, Delury claimed Trump’s sabre-rattling rhetoric and erratic use of force would only strengthen Kim’s determination to develop an effective nuclear deterrent that might spare him the fate of Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi.“It’s really just playing Pyongyang’s game. It is a waste of time and the Trump administration should move onto a more promising avenue to solve the problem ... Since they have nothing to lose and we have everything to lose, they win every game of chicken.”
Leonid Petrov, a North Korea specialist at the Australian National University, said that with its latest missile launch “the message from North Korea is that despite US posturing they are not going to abandon their missile programme”.Petrov said he was not surprised Kim Jong-un had chosen not to commemorate the 105th anniversary of the birth of the founder of North Korea, his grandfather Kim Il-sung, with an anticipated sixth nuclear test.
“Given the physical damage that would cause to nearby areas, it would have been unusual for a loyal, filial grandson to order a nuclear test on such an auspicious day,” he said.
But when that test does come it would prove the day of reckoning for Trump’s more aggressive approach towards North Korea. “If the US responds with an attack, that would confirm Kim’s claims that he is surrounded by hostile forces that are determined to carry out a pre-emptive strike,” Petrov said.
“The moment of truth for the US will be whether it strikes [in response to a nuclear test] and provokes a resumption of the Korean war at the expense of South Korean security, or stands down and betrays its weakness.”
“What would the US do? Withdraw, hang around or strike?” Petrov asked. “The ball is in the Americans’ court.”
Mark Selden *4 “Is Donald Trump the man to promote peace with North Korea?” https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/apr/16/trump-peace-north-korea-nuclear-war-kim-johg-un-missile-test
英国労働党の元欧州議員で北朝鮮専門家のGlyn Ford氏の意見が援用されているのだが、そのリンク先はGlyn Fordではなく息子のAlessandro Ford氏についての記事；
Maeve Shearlaw “No sex, drugs or rock’n’roll – a North Korean gap year” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/30/north-korea-gap-year-student-sex-drugs
Alessandro Ford氏は「ギャップ・イヤー」に西側の人間として初めて金日成総合大学に留学した。この記事からリンクされている、脱北者の視点から見た北朝鮮観光の倫理的是非についての記事を読む；
Chad O'Carroll “Tourism in North Korea: right or wrong? Defectors make their case” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/01/tourism-north-korea-right-wrong-ethical-defectors
“North Korea 'will test missiles weekly', senior official tells BBC” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39623882
Associated Press “North Korea warns 'thermonuclear war may break out at any moment'” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/north-korea-war-break-out-any-moment-donald-trump-v
*1:http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20170413/1492093820 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20170415/1492243639
*2:https://twitter.com/johndelury See eg. http://gsis.yonsei.ac.kr/main/faculty.asp?mid=n01_04&act=view&idx=121 See also http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20120708/1341677438
*3:See eg. https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/petrov-la
*4:See also http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20100628/1277652782 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20131015/1381842900 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20150520/1432144396
