1848?

承前*1

Tariq Ali*2 “This is an Arab 1848. But US hegemony is only dented” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/22/arab-1848-us-hegemony-dented

チュニジア、埃及から始まって、バーレーン、リビアに至る今回の中東の事態をヨーロッパ史における1848年と比較している；

If there is a comparison to be made with Europe it is 1848*3, when the revolutionary upheavals left only Britain and Spain untouched – even though Queen Victoria, thinking of the Chartists, feared otherwise. Writing to her besieged nephew on the Belgian throne, she expressing sympathy but wondered whether "we will all be slain in our beds". Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown or bejewelled headgear, and has billions stored in foreign banks.

Like Europeans in 1848 the Arab people are fighting against foreign domination (82% of Egyptians, a recent opinion poll revealed, have a "negative view of the US"); against the violation of their democratic rights; against an elite blinded by its own illegitimate wealth – and in favour of economic justice.

また、今回は1950年代のナセル式のアラブ・ナショナリズムとは違う；

This is different from the first wave of Arab nationalism, which was concerned principally with driving the remnants of the British empire out of the region. The Egyptians under Nasser nationalised the Suez canal and were invaded by Britain, France and Israel – but that was without Washington's permission, and the three were thus compelled to withdraw.

Cairo was triumphant. The pro-British monarchy was toppled by the 1958 revolution in Iraq, radicals took power in Damascus, a senior Saudi prince attempted a palace coup and fled to Cairo when it failed, armed struggles erupted in Yemen and Oman, and there was much talk of an Arab nation with three concurrent capitals. One side effect was an eccentric coup in Libya that brought a young, semi-literate officer, Muammar Gaddafi, to power. His Saudi enemies have always insisted that the coup was masterminded by British intelligence, just like the one that propelled Idi Amin to power in Uganda. Gaddafi's professed nationalism, modernism and radicalism were all for show, like his ghosted science-fiction short stories.

ガダフィに対する評価；

It never extended to his own people. Despite the oil wealth he refused to educate Libyans, or provide them with a health service or subsidised housing, squandering money on absurdist projects abroad – one of which was to divert a British plane carrying socialist and communist Sudanese oppositionists and handing them over to fellow dictator Gaafar Nimeiry in Sudan to be hanged, thus wrecking the possibility of any radical change in that country, with dire consequences, as we witness every day. At home he maintained a rigid tribal structure, thinking he could divide and buy tribes to stay in power. But no longer.

今後の不確定性；

The Arab revolutions, triggered by the economic crisis, have mobilised mass movements, but not every aspect of life has been called into question. Social, political and religious rights are becoming the subject of fierce controversy in Tunisia, but not elsewhere yet. No new political parties have emerged, an indication that the electoral battles to come will be contests between Arab liberalism and conservatism in the shape of the Muslim Brotherhood, modelling itself on Islamists in power in Turkey and Indonesia, and ensconced in the embrace of the US.

ヨーロッパにおける1848年については、河野健二『現代史の幕あけ』を再びマークしておく*4。

現代史の幕あけ―ヨーロッパ1848年 (1982年) (岩波新書)

また、

Brian Whitaker “Muammar Gaddafi: method in his 'madness'” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/23/muammar-gaddafi-madness

リビアのガダフィについて。最後に曰く、

By continuing to bask in the glories of 1969, he has lost touch with his people. Most Libyans alive today have no recollection of King Idris or the revolution that overthrew him. For them, it's part of Libya's past. But not part of its future.

リビアに限らずどこでも、出生率の高いアラブ社会では若年層は（人口学的な意味で）マジョリティなのだった。だから、過去の出来事との関連を過度に強調するのはちょっと考え物だろう。何しろ、マジョリティにとっては〈生まれる前の出来事〉なのだから。
リビア（ガダフィのリビア）については、基本的にはヨイショ本であるが、江口朴郎、板垣雄三編『交感するリビア』（藤原書店、1990）というのがあった*5。

交感するリビア―中東と日本を結ぶ

*1:http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20110131/1296495265 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20110203/1296712681 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20110215/1297740481 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20110220/1298219880

*2:See also http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20050713

*3:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

*4:See also http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20100324/1269399406

*5:Mentioned in http://d.hatena.ne.jp/sumita-m/20080531/1212182439