Stiglitz on Inflation Targeting - Living, Loving, Thinking, Again

Joseph E. Stiglitz “The Failure of Inflation Targeting” http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz99

スティグリッツ先生*1、インタゲを叱る？
注意点は２つか。
先ず、このテクストは昨年５月、国際的に原油価格と穀物価格の高騰が問題になっていた頃に書かれたこと。それから、インフレーション・ターゲッティングというと、ターゲットまでインフレ率を上げるリフレーションの局面が注目されるが、実はインフレ率がターゲットを超えた場合に金利を上げてインフレをターゲット内に収めるという側面もある。スティグリッツがここで問題にしているのはその局面*2。

Today, inflation targeting is being put to the test – and it will almost certainly fail. Developing countries currently face higher rates of inflation not because of poorer macro-management, but because oil and food prices are soaring, and these items represent a much larger share of the average household budget than in rich countries. In China, for example, inflation is approaching 8% or more. In Vietnam, it is even higher and is expected to approach 18.2% this year, and in India it is 5.8% . By contrast, US inflation stands at 3%. Does that mean that these developing countries should raise their interest rates far more than the US?
Inflation in these countries is, for the most part, imported . Raising interest rates won’t have much impact on the international price of grains or fuel. Indeed, given the size of the US economy, a slowdown there might conceivably have a far bigger effect on global prices than a slowdown in any developing country, which suggests that, from a global perspective, US interest rates, not those in developing countries, should be raised.
So long as developing countries remain integrated into the global economy – and do not take measures to restrain the impact of international prices on domestic prices – domestic prices of rice and other grains are bound to rise markedly when international prices do. For many developing countries, high oil and food prices represent a triple threat: not only do importing countries have to pay more for grain, they have to pay more to bring it to their countries and still more to deliver it to consumers who may live a long distance from ports.

途上国のインフレは経済の過熱や貨幣の発行のしすぎによってではなく、原油や穀物の高騰による稀少化によって起こっているのだから、各国の中央銀行がいくら金利を上げて経済を引き締めても、原油や穀物の国際価格が下がるわけではないので、デフレ政策をしてもインフレを抑えることはできないということになる。ただ、具体的な提案としては、先進国は自国の農業保護の金を貧しい国への援助に回せということくらいしかないのだが。
勿論、このテクストを根拠にして、デフレ局面でのリフレ政策に反対することはできない。

*2:“whenever price growth exceeds a target level, interest rates should be raised”という主張に対する反論。